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Predictors of Success: Toward Accurate Screening that Can’t Be Gamed

I ate dinner tonight at an amazing restaurant in Koreatown in New York that has a city-block long buffet. The price for dinner was based on height, with one price for those over 4 1/2 feet and lower ones for 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 feet and 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 feet. I wondered how accurate that was as a predictor of food consumption – and if the waitstaff eyeballs or actually measures clientele. Coincidentally, today’s New York Times had an article about how “some of the country’s most influential college admissions officials” recommend a shift from SAT and ACT scores toward an admission exam that is a better predictor of college grades. Online programs have struggled with the same question of predictors of success with the focus being more on self-motivation and distractibility.
I have seen online universities that offer a test to potential applicants to help applicants decide if they will be successful online learners. I have no idea how successful they are as a screening device although I can think of a number of schools that I imagine use ability to pay as one of their primary screening techniques. In the corporate world, there is rarely screening because there is rarely a choice. Everyone must succeed.
I have heard stories over the years from people who cheat or game the system in some way – I’ll even admit to taking the exam at the end of a course without going through it in hopes that some combination of common sense, good guesses, and luck would help me pass without actually taking the course. The college officials’ recommendation to find more accurate predictors was partially based on the growing role of “the billion-dollar test-prep industry that encourages students to try to game the tests”. At least one thing is certain: I can’t walk in to the restaurant on my knees hoping to pass for under 4 1/2 feet tall.

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