Converge Magazine reported that the World Future Society predicted that one of the ten breakthrough technologies that “will transform life as we currently know it” is distance education. I was amused because (1) it has already transformed so many people’s lives and (2) most people no longer call it “distance education”.
In the article, Roger Schank said that not much has changed in the past fifty years. His vision is that students should be put in simulated environments where they can learn by doing, rather than memorizing facts and formulas, and believes that few education leaders and politicians are visionary enough to make sweeping changes.
While I agree about the lack of sweeping changes, I disagree about the role of memorization and the lack of change. Memorization is essential, but it needs to be coupled with learning how to apply facts and formulas in meaningful ways. Medical students, to pick on a discipline where memorization is crucial, can not just “learn by doing”. And the change is evident in every aspect of education, although one can certainly argue not all change is for the better. This sentiment was expressed last week at the Health 2.0 conference, where Esther Dyson said “we should be paying for health, not for health care, and we should take $5 billion and train more gym teachers.”
Back to the future – I mean back to my points. Distance learning and educational technology has certainly transformed education but there is room for more change. And what we call it matters: e-learning, online learning, etc. are the more au courant terms. When I read about distance learning, it reminds me of correspondence schools. And even one of the few remaining correspondence schools recently changed its name. The International Correspondence School is now Penn Foster. Started in 1890 by newspaperman Thomas Foster, the initial goal was to help anthracite coal miners become mine superintendents and foremen, studying over candlelight following a 12-hour shift. Talk about people who would have been better off in simulated environments!
The glow of technological devices has replaced candlelight, email has supplanted postal mail, and the e-learning of today is not just lessons placed online but uses innovative technologies to engage learners. The classroom has not been replaced because it serves an important role, as Saul Carliner eloquently articulated in the controversial Long Live Instructor-Led Learning. I wonder what the World Future Society has to say about that.
The World Future Society, interesting, does have something to say about pandemics. An article about the Threat of a flu pandemic, from a 2006 issue of their magazine, was just updated to say that the initial carriers were birds rather than pigs but that the article “still provide[s] a reliable picture of what government response to a pandemic might entail”. While Stephen Downes might have a field day reviewing and grading their past predictions, this article seems quite accurate although not a prediction per se.
No one will argue that predicting the future is hard, Jeane Dixon notwithstanding. But, using the right terminology makes it easier to look to the future.